Preface

• Purpose = global literacy— help people become conversant with the political, economic, social context of the current day
• Note: geopolitics = competition among countries for power and influence

Part I: The Essential History

From the Thirty Years’ War to the Outbreak of World War I (1618-1914)

• Thirty Years’ War & resulting Treaty of Westphalia (1648) → established principle of sovereignty, modern int’l system
  • Nations have borders to be respected, governments can do what they please within them
  • Relative peace until rise of Napoleon → Congress of Vienna (1814) → established system of Concert of Europe, which held influence until unification of Germany (1871)
• Period of imperialism (“century of humiliation”) in China with Opium Wars, lasting till Mao → still shapes how Chinese interact with the world
• Rise of Britain to dominance through resources of colonies, trade, strong navy
• World War I ← interplay of rising (Britain, Germany) and declining (Ottoman, Russia) powers

From World War I Through World War II (1914-1945)

• Aftermath of WWI → rise self-determination in E Europe, nationalism there and in places where people did not feel represented; Germany burdened by reparations
• Great Depression felt worldwide
• Response to totalitarianism = appeasement; failure of League of Nations; US isolationism
• Unlike WWI, outbreak of WWII became inevitable: Germany and Japan → aggression that could not be accommodated by existing order

The Cold War (1945-1989)

• Competition between US & USSR fueled by ideology, objectives wrt rest of the world
  • Conference at Yalta (1945 w FDR, Stalin, Churchill) → example of how US presidents falsely believed their personal relationships with foreign leaders could solve intractable political problems
• US shifted from isolationism to supporting W Europe (Truman Doctrine, Marshall Plan); containment of communism (developed by Kennan)
• Wave of decolonization in Asia, Africa, Middle East
• Despite conflicts in Korea/Vietnam, Cold War prevented from escalating by: balance of military powers (NATO vs Warsaw Pact), mutually-assured destruction, arms control, limits on how much either side tried to interfere with the other
• Détente = relaxation of tensions (1989-1991): in part bc weakness of USSR, but also constant efforts of US, HW Bush being careful to not humiliate Communist leaders

The Post-Cold War Era (1988-Present)

• Maintenance of NATO → continued isolation of Russia
• Lots of messiness over Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine: when does the UN gain authority to protect citizens from their own govt?
• 9/11 → age of global terrorism, counterterrorism
• Financial crisis of 2007 → brought economic inequality in the developed world to focus, increased populism, disaffection w capitalism
• Other trends
  • Revival of friction btw US and China/Russia— difficult situation with China because integrated in global economy, must balance cooperation with competition
  • Emergence of global challenges requiring (and not getting) international response— climate change, regulation of cyberspace, actual outer space

Part II: Regions of the World

Europe

• Unique because of relative wealth, number of democracies, peace/stability
  • Due in part to NATO, European integration
  • Path to EU began after WWII, with integration of coal/steel industries across multiple countries to make mutually dependent and prevent war
• Post-Cold War challenges
  • Ongoing ethnic conflict in newly independent Eastern Eur countries
  • Debate over how much integration is desired, both politically and economically (ex. Brexit)
  • Slowing of economic growth due to aging population, lack of overarching fiscal policy (taxes and spending)
• Tensions with Russia as NATO shifted its role to interventionary force, expanded to include newly independent former Soviet states

East Asia and the Pacific

• Very diverse in terms of population, political systems
• Steady improvement in economic performance, after initially dealing with Vietnam & Korean Wars: driven by political stability, culture of hard work, investment in education, free trade
  • “Asian Tigers” = HK, SK, Taiwan, Singapore
  • Role of the US: development of professional militaries, support of free trade → export-led growth, support of democracy & human rights
• Geopolitical challenges (all affected by developments in Sino-American relations)
  • Balance of power of China vs Japan
  • Territorial disputes btw China, Russia, Japan in South China Sea
  • Power politics with China/India/Pakistan
  • What to do about Taiwan
  • Korean Peninsula

South Asia

• Dynamics dominated by India, India-Pakistani relations, shadow of British colonialism
  • Densely populated region, large Muslim and Hindu populations, very little economic integration
  • Central Asia (-stans) best considered separately, in the context of USSR
  • Economic development in many countries, but not at same rate as East Asia
• Ongoing conflicts
  • Instability in Afghanistan (US intervention)
  • Dealing with other poverty and inequality— home to two of poorest nations (Pakistan, Afghanistan)

The Middle East

• Three groups of countries: Egypt/North Africa, Levant (Israel, Jordan...), Arabian peninsula; predominantly Muslim except Israel
• Modest in terms of land, population, economy, human rights, but outsized influence in world affairs bc:
  • Energy resources (oil and natural gas)
  • Religious significance w Jerusalem
  • Violence— large number of terrorist attacks, paramilitary groups not controlled by government
  • Israel-Palestine conflict
• Context on Iran-Iraq tensions
  • Iran = one of few non-Arab countries in the region— Persian, mainly Shia; supported by US and ruled by Shah until overthrow by religious leader in 1978
  • Iraq = Arab, on paper has all qualities for success, but authoritarian rule of Saddam Hussein, violence vs Shia majority and Kurds (group of Sunni with Persian roots), overall internal strife prevented this
  • Rivalry and war between the two; US invasion of Iraq ultimately benefited Iran → regional power supporting local Shia populations, raising concern from Saudis abs the rest
• The Arab Spring → did not pan out as hoped; failure of US to intervene → end of primacy in region
• Overall, no balance of power → lots of internal conflict and violence

Sub-Saharan Africa

• Diverse in many regards, and not a clear boundary btw this group and more Arab-identifying Northern Africa
• Rapid decolonization in 1960s led to conflict in establishing stability, self-rule → region characterized more by internal strife than geopolitics
• Mixed when it comes to economics
  • Decrease in relative number of people living in extreme poverty, but increase in absolute number (Sane with illiteracy)
  • Not much tax collection, extensive corruption, little widespread access to electricity
  • Negligible intra-African trade
• Rapidly growing and young population, but not supported by adequate healthcare system or economic opportunities
• Some tentative progress in democracy

The Americas

• Obviously dominated by US, but even without, important bc size of export market, energy resources
• Lack of geopolitics = advantageous for US bc can focus more abroad, but many countries internally racked by violence
• Historically, first age of colonisation, then US intervention with Monroe Doctrine, venue of Cold War conflict
• Contemporary issues
  • Political, economic, social crises in Venezuela, violence and corruption Brazil, MX, etc.
  • The above contributing to forced migration to US, with all the accompanying issues
  • Will be important to deal with internal security, promote trade among continent, protect the Amazon

Part III: The Global Era

• Globalization = flow of everything across the world and across borders: people, information, viruses, CO2
  • Has good and bad consequences, some aspects can be more controlled (ex. protecting borders, tariffs), but can’t reject that it is the reality
  • Interconnectedness, interdependence
• Terrorism (& counterterrorism) = intentional use of violence vs civilians to pursue political objectives; not carried out by a state (otherwise it’s war)
• Nuclear proliferation: usually refers to a country adding new class or category of weapons
  • Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970 meant to prevent this, but limited in what it can actually do
  • Work to develop nuclear reactors that can provide energy without materials for weapons
• Climate change → all the usual things, but refugee crisis is especially worth noting
• Migration: movement of people within and across borders
  • Can be defined to be just for voluntary reasons (ex. economic opportunity), but growing numbers (1% of world population) of forcible displaced people (escaping violence or persecution)
  • Challenge will likely be met with local and national efforts, bc little success with coordinated international response
• Internet, cyberspace, cybersecurity
  • Trade-off between collective security and individual privacy
• Global health:
  • Comprises 10% economic output overall, and 18% in US
  • Definite progress recently, but still lots inequality, lack of consensus on priorities
  • Increasing impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs: diabetes, cancer, CV disease)
• Trade & investment
  • Global trade → expands market, availability of goods, allows for specialization, usually better prices
    • Countries with stronger currency → more spending power, more imports, trade deficits
    • Hard to keep track of net imports and exports bc global supply chain: products made in many diff countries
    • Also has political advantage of making countries more interdependent, less likely to go to war
    • “Free” and “fair” trade don’t necessarily mean balanced, but rather that true cost of good/service is being reflected
  • Barriers to free trade = tariffs, quotas or bans, subsidies, currency manipulation, “dumping” of exports at low cost, not respecting intellectual property, export controls (usually for national security reasons)
• Currency & monetary policy
  • Monetary policy = actions of a central bank like regulating money supply by buying and selling bonds, adjusting interest rates to influence inflation
    • Fiscal policy (government spending, taxes), trade policy also affect pace of economic activity, but controlled by executive/legislative branches, not independent central banks
  • Currently, the dollar = foundational unit of global economy; not ideal, but kind of the only option
• Development → widely used but ill-defined term meant to capture more than just economic growth

Part IV: Order and Disorder

• Order = degree to which widespread rules govern international relations, degree to which the rules are buffered against change
  • Can reframe much of history in these terms, at global and regional levels: order → peace & prosperity, disorder → conflict, war
• Sovereignty, self-determination, balance of power → factors in determining order at geopolitical scale
• Alliances → formal obligations to protect each other’s security; can strengthen or undermine order
  • Weaker members generally have to concede to stronger ones, but benefit by maintaining autonomy as a state
  • Stronger states may be drawn into conflict, but can prevent armament of its smaller allies by offering their own military support
  • Alternatives = international organizations, coalitions (but generally also much more ineffective
• International society = more than just a system; also affected by prevalence of democracy, degree of economic interdependence, extent of global governance, respect for international law
• War between countries = obvious sign of breakdown of order
  • No hard definition of what counts as war in terms of scale, length, etc.
  • Preventative (against a perceived gathering threat to block it from emerging) vs preemptive (throwing the first punch)
  • Currently much more civil war then interstate war (trend since WWII)
• Internal instability & war within countries
  • Fragile/weak states = unable to perform basic governing duties like internal security, taxes, infrastructure, education; home over 20% of population (Mexico, Pakistan); at more extreme, turn into failed states (Somalia, Syria, Venezuela)
  • Civil wars can be of secession or succession; more common in heterogenous societies, where corruption is widespread, low education levels
  • Many possible policy responses, all with their own caveats: diplomacy, economic incentives, sanctions, military intervention, partition, nation-building
• The liberal world order: lead by US, promoting free trade and democracy
  • Coming to an end with relative weakening of US and lack of willingness to play its traditional role
  • Failure of institutions like the UN to adapt to shifting balance of power (China, Russia)
  • Emergence of nationalism, populism, authoritarianism
  • Need for new form of multilateralism, led by US, to address new global challenges (ultimately no better alternative— would you rather China lead the world, or continue on the trend of weak coordination like now?)