Intro

• Scout mindset = motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were
  • Lots of attn lately to all the ways we fool ourselves, are biased, etc., but we also get it right sometime!
  • Takes more than just knowing that the biases and fallacies exist—requires attitude shift
• Three-pronged approach to promoting scout mindset:
  1. Realize that truth isn’t in conflict with your other goals
  2. Learn tools that make it easier to see clearly
  3. Appreciate the emotional rewards of scout mindset

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Part I: The Case for Scout Mindset

1: Two Types of Thinking

• Soldier mindset ≈ directionally motivated reasoning: when our unconscious motives affect conclusions we draw
  • Asking “Can I believe this?” vs “Must I believe this?”
  • So common it’s basically just… reasoning
  • Feels like we are being rational, but really defending our beliefs vs threats— all the military metaphors of arguments and beliefs
• Scout mindset = accuracy motivated reasoning → question your assumptions, consider alternate explanations, goal of more accurate map > more useful one

2: What the Soldier is Protecting

• Chesterton’s fence: before you change something, understand why it is the way it is → important to understand functions of soldier mindset
  • First three benefits = emotional; last three are social

1. Comfort: avoiding unpleasant feelings, sour grapes and sweet lemons
2. Self-esteem: can be both self-enhancement or self-protection (assume the worst to avoid getting your hopes up)
3. Morale: motivate yourself to do hard things
4. Persuasion: LBJ → “What convinces is conviction.”
5. Image: getting people to believe that you believe something
6. Belonging: not just conforming, but actively rejecting contrary evidence to do so

3: Why the Truth is More Valuable Than We Realize

• Trade-offs between above benefits of soldier mindset and benefit of judgement from scout mindset
  • Many biases → overvalue benefits of soldier mindset, undervalue those of scout habits— immediate reward > incremental value
  • Underestimate ripple effects of self-deception
  • Overestimate social costs— ex. lying about habits to your doctor bc of embarassment
• Evolutionarily, makes sense to favor soldier mindset bc less opportunities for truth and experimentation, but in modern world, so many ways to learn and improve and try again

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Part II: Developing Self-Awareness

4: Signs of a Scout

• Key factor preventing us from adopting scout mindset = thinking we are already in it…
  • Feeling objective ≠ being a scout! Actually leads you to trusting intuition > reality
  • Being smart ≠ being a scout: people with highest scientific intelligence → most politically polarized; intelligence/knowledge = tools, but can be used for any goal
• Actual signs & behavioral cues of scout mindset:
  1. Telling other people when you realize they’re right (and you’re wrong)
  2. Seeking out & actually being open to personal criticism
  3. Proving yourself wrong
  4. Taking precautions to avoid fooling yourself— ex. blind data analysis used in Supernova Cosmology Project that shifted actual numbers to keep researchers from (consciously or not) tweaking their analyses
     • Can also look like deciding on go/no-go points for new projects ahead of time, describing disagreements to others w/o revealing what side you were on
  5. Having good critics & knowing their reasons
  6. (Most important!) Identifying times when you were in soldier mindset

5: Noticing Bias

• Use counterfactual thought experiments to identify whether you are using directionally motivated reasoning → reveal the contingencies of your beliefs

1. Double standard test: Are you judging other people’s behavior by standards you wouldn’t apply to yourself?
2. Outsider test: Imagine someone else stepping into your shoes— what would they do?
3. Conformity test: (when agreeing with someone else’s viewpoint) If the person tells you they no longer hold that view, would you still hold it? Would you defend it to them?
4. Selective skeptic test: If the evidence you are considering supported the other side, how would you judge it?
5. Status quo bias test: If your current situation were not the status quo, would you still prefer it? (Addresses loss aversion)

6: How Sure Are You?

• Tendency to overconfidence → important to quantify uncertainty of our beliefs: ideally, you want X% of the beliefs you are X% sure in to be true
  • Moves away from all-or-nothing thinking
• Think about decisions in terms of bets (How much would I put at stake for this?) vs what you can get away with claiming
• Equivalent bet test → helps pinpoint your certainty around a belief: would you rather bet $10,000 on randomly choosing something at a certain probability, or the other thing happening?

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Part III: Thriving Without Illusions

7: Coping with Reality

• Human desire for things to “be okay” motivates self-deception— but there are other coping strategies that don’t require this!
  • Make a concrete plan, look for silver linings, focus on a different goal, “things could be worse”
• Research claiming that self-deception is beneficial often conflates positive beliefs with positive illusions

8: Motivation Without Self-Deception

• Idea that if you believe enough in your dream, you will succeed overlooks possibility of even making a decision for other goals, other things you may enjoy
• How to keep yourself motivated when you have a more accurate picture of the odds of success (often not so great)?
  • Utilize expected value → can be motivated by a bet worth taking, not just blind faith in success
  • Take enough bets with positive expected value over time and you’ll end up ahead overall
• Building in reality of random noise into expectation of your results → equanimity when fluctuations occur
• Scout mindset → in the face of failure, can say that you knew that it was a possibility, you knew the odds, and you would make the same bet again given the same opportunities

9: Influence Without Overconfidence

• Two types of confidence, often conflated:
  • Epistemic confidence = certainty about what’s true
  • Social confidence = self-assurance
• We are judged much more on social confidence— public speaking, making eye contact— than epistemic
  • Similarly, we mistrust uncertainty due to ignorance/inexperience much more than uncertainty bc reality is messy/unpredictable
• Communicate uncertainty effectively by: sgowing uncertainty is justified, giving informed estimates, having a plan
• Can be inspiring without promising success!

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Part IV: Changing Your Mind

10: How to Be Wrong

• Success of superforecasters ← changing their minds, adjusting certainty
  • Adjust opinions incrementally over time → easier to be open to changing beliefs
  • View errors as opportunities to improve & learn domain-general lessons
  • Reframe “admitting you were wrong” as “updating” your beliefs

11: Lean In To Confusion

• How to be curious about details that don’t fit your theories to learn, rather than dismissing or explaining them away

12: Escape Your Echo Chamber

• Blindly exposing yourself to “the other side” can be more polarizing, bc likely will encounter disagreeable people you disagree
• Instead: listen to people you find reasonable, who you share intellectual common ground with, who you share goals with

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Part V: Rethinking Identity

13: How Beliefs Become Identities

• Two things that turn a belief into an identity: feeling embattled (attacked or defensive) and feeling proud— often feed into each other
• Signs a belief might be an identity (which can affect you ability to think clearly about it):
  1. Using the phrase “I believe” — makes the belief about
  2. Getting annoyed when an ideology is criticized
  3. Defiant language, a righteous tone, using epithets for ideologies
  4. Gatekeeping (“You can’t call yourself a ___ if you __”)
  5. Schadenfreude — deriving pleasure from bad news for a group you oppose → oppositional identity
  6. Having to defend your view, whether vs fair or unfair criticism

14: Hold Your Identity Lightly

• Hard to avoid labels altogether, but at least internally think of it as “mostly agreeing with the consensus of this idea,” treating beliefs as contingent
• Having a sense of your own beliefs and values independent of the the “tribe’s”
• Ideological Turing test: do you understand your belief well enough to be able to convincingly explain why someone wouldn’t believe in it?
• Strongly held identity prevents you from persuading others, while understanding the other side makes it possible to change minds
• How does this connect with activism?
  • Trade-off between identity and impact— holding identity lighter → can have greater impact

15: A Scout Identity

• Holding scout mindset as an identity → makes it easier and more rewarding to do the hard things it entails