The Terrifying Warning Lurking in the Earth’s Ancient Rock Record (2021)

Peter Brannen

rating good
type nonfiction/journalism article
concepts climate
2021/02/07 "Our climate models could be missing something big."
  • When the atmosphere's had this much CO2 in the pst, temps have been much warmer, sea levels 70 ft higher (not at equilibrium yet)
  • Easy to forget about cycles that affect climate on more astronomic scales— axis tilt swiveling every 20k years or so → flip N & S hemisphere climates
  • Earth has much more often been warmer than it is, no ice sheets
  • What did that world look like, 50 mya?
    • Just as mammals were emerging
    • India collided with Asia → CO2 spewing volcanoes quieted, weathering rocks in Himalayas, Indonesia → carbon drawdown
    • Now, all this may be undone in mere decades
  • Periods of climate instability → ice thawing and freezing → dramatic changes to landscape happening quickly, relatively speaking
  • Leap back 129,000 years → temps about 1 degree warmer, but sea levels 20-30 ft higher than now
  • Jump back over 3 million years → "the Pliocene, the world of the distant present"
    • Last time CO2 was similar to anthropogenic levels
    • Temps 3-4 degrees C warmer, sea levels 80 ft higher
    • Time of Lucy roaming Earth
    • Polar amplification → Arctic regions are 15-20 degrees warmer
    • Overall, much wetter world than our predictions— perhaps inadequacies in modelling clouds?
  • Usually, once you have a land-based Antarctic ice sheet, feedback loops make it hard to get rid of
    • Not the case in Miocine, 16 mya— ice sheet very tuned to CO2 levels
    • May be even more sensitive today
    • Industrial civilization ≈ supervolcano
  • Finally, 50 mya = more extreme than worse-case CO2 conditions in the next 100 years
    • No Antarctic ice sheet, polar jungles
    • Warmer air holds more water > incredibly humid, far too wet for human physiology
    • Violent storms, megafloods, boiling seas and acidic oceans
    • Extremity of conditions suggests our models might be missing something— feedback loops that might lead to higher CO2 levels than we expect